Red and black moves, the simple game

Besides words, Mafia has moves: verifiable actions of a player. Moves are more honest than speeches and harder to fake, which is why colour is often judged by them. This lesson teaches how to tell red and black moves apart, explains why the town needs a culture of red moves and how the mafia tries to get around that culture, and introduces the "simple game" approach suitable for beginners.

What a move is

A move is an action that can be recorded: nominated, voted, supported, covered, chose a check, put a hand. The phrases "it seems to me" and "by the dynamics" are not moves; they are opinions. A move equals a fact: a certain verifiable action of a player that we observed. This is number 1 of the "rocket" (fact, interpretation, call).

Red and black move

The author of "50 Shades of Red" gives a definition in a box: actions, performances, moves and lines of play that increase the probability of victory of the civilian team are red. Those that help the mafia win are black.

A red player may deceive, leave things unsaid and be sly, and all of this is acceptable if the action helps the town. The author calls such "decoys" feints.

Why the town needs a culture of red moves

Ideally you need not only to persuade others of your version but also, by your presence, to create a culture of red moves. If the civilians do not perform red actions, the mafia wins more often. Without knowledge of the basics of the game and an active civilian town the mafia can allow itself with impunity to:

break a car crash in round zero;
say "pass" and give no position;
saw the table in a critical round to break the vote;
ignore the will of a red check;
make other black moves without complaints from the residents.

Playing red at a weak table is harder than playing mafia, and in seven games out of ten it is the red card that we get. So a culture of red moves plays into everyone's hands: the town's and the strong players', because the general strengthening of the civilians gives more levers of influence and lowers the percentage of games lost through foolishness. A strong player depends less on which team he lands in.

An amusing nuance: as a black player we do not care about any rules. We can ignore them if the town allows. The less the mafia team is restricted, the easier it is for it to win.

The reddening action and the sheriff's shot

The author formulates the mafia's working scheme: if there is a way to become red for the town without a check, an experienced mafia player will use it himself or with the team's help. The scheme is:

Reddening action + sheriff's shot = victory.

Play on mixed colours: the town gets the impression that in a pair of players, if one is black, the other is necessarily red, whereas in fact both are mafia. Hence the term. For example, a player can:

remove the sheriff's black check with the deciding hand at nine;
ask for a mafia member to be checked;
vote together with the sheriff and his red check against the false sheriff;
put a hand for raising a black player in round zero;
stand in a hard counterweight with the mafia.

All of these are red moves in form, but the mafia can make them on purpose, splitting off from its own team. So a red move is not yet a guarantee of red colour. Play on mixed colours is extremely effective if the town does not count.

Logic you can rely on one hundred percent

Not everything in the game is in question. There are conclusions that follow directly from the rules:

There are three black players in town. The game ends when the numbers of blacks and reds are equal. If at six players the game has not ended, then there are only one or two blacks at the table. If it is morning and the round is at five, there is no black trio at the table.
A player who is red by the sheriff's check is red. This is the only hundred-percent way to determine colour when both teams play well: start from the sheriff and his checks.

Everything else works with reservations, so the author divides information into two kinds: objective (true) and subjective (subject to cognitive distortions). Further judgments have reliability of 75, 65-70 percent and less (the author's estimates derived from his experience). This is analysed in detail in the lesson "Reliability of judgments".

The simple game: rules of caution

The simple game belongs to the class "do not say too much, do not do stupid things, do not be overconfident". Its basis is the duck rule: if something looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. If a player makes a black move by attacking a red, he is mafia.

If you are a civilian and another player calls you black, he is mafia. Or he will raise his hand in a critical round together with the black team.
If a player calls a civilian black, and the latter is checked red, the one who called him is mafia.
In a counterweight between two players without a check there is one mafia and one civilian. To play out or close the counterweight means to remove the players in turn on the votes.
If you called red someone who turned out to be mafia during the game, you fly out next.
If you are a civilian and ended up in the guessing round with a player who called the third one a civilian all game, then he himself is mafia.
Between the one who broke and the one into whom they broke there is one black player. This concept is needed for the counterweight.
Among players who send each other to be checked before the night the sheriff dies, there are one or two blacks.

The author stipulates: the rules of the simple game "lower the probability of making a mistake and interpret behaviour unambiguously". So they suit beginners, but at strong tables the mafia uses precisely this unambiguity.

When the rule does not work

Any move can be used as camouflage. The mafia can deliberately make a red move to look red, or call a red black to create the appearance of a conflict. Count moves not one by one but in aggregate: if over a game a person made five red moves and one black, the conclusion differs from the reverse. If there is a way to become red for the town without a check, be ready for it to be used.

Example

Player No. 4 removes the black check of sheriff No. 1 with the deciding hand at nine, then asks to check No. 6, and at night the sheriff is killed. They seem to be red moves. But if the sheriff is dead and No. 4 has been going along with No. 6 all this time by the count, perhaps this is a split. A red player will count: how many blacks are at the table on the line of the killed sheriff and whether No. 4 is among them.

Questions for self-check

Name three red moves and three black ones that you have noticed in your own games.
Why is it harder to play red than mafia at a weak table?
What is play on mixed colours and how do you oppose it?
Which rules of the simple game do you already apply?

Practice

Take a recording of a game and make for each player a table of "red moves" and "black moves". Determine the black trio and compare with the real roles. Which move turned out to be the most informative? Which mixed colours did you not notice?

Typical mistakes

Treating a red move as proof of red colour.
Applying the rules of the simple game without checking the count.
Not noticing that the mafia uses reddening moves together with the sheriff's shot.
Making black moves with a red card "for fun".

Source of the idea. The chapters "Key tasks of a civilian", "Reliable determination of a role's colour" and "The concept of the simple game" from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021). The percentages belong to the author. The example, questions and practice were written for the Academy.