The sheriff's round: the mafia's miss on the first night

A mafia miss on the night after round zero is the heaviest mistake of the blacks: it is punished harder than any other. If the town reacts correctly, it gets a chance at a mathematical victory. The only thought of the reds at a miss, in Novik's view, should be one: the sheriff's round. The lesson explains what it is, why the technique works and how not to spoil it with trifles.

What the sheriff's round is

All the players, starting from the second, cut their speeches short with the word "pass", skipping the minute. Nobody is removed, nobody is nominated. The mafia does not manage to agree on the next victim, feels strong stress, while the sheriff gets an extra check. Either the blacks break down into a repeated miss, or they try to break the round with a shout and thereby give themselves away: so the town gets a black at once.

The cause of a miss is most often poor communication inside the black team, especially on the night of acquaintance. The round punishes exactly this weakness.

Four reasons it works

1. It saves the leader of the reds. The don cannot assign a victim by speech. Without an agreement the first red by count is shot: usually slot no. 1, and if a black is there, then no. 2. Even with a crossfire the sheriff has an 86 percent chance of living to the next round (the probability of killing the sheriff is one in seven).
2. It does not let an agreement be set on an inconvenient player. The speech agreement is blocked, the round is short, the mafia team is under emotional pressure, and passing the victim with gestures and looks raises suspicion. According to the author's observations in a group of readers, a repeated miss happens in 60 to 90 percent of cases.
3. It guarantees an extra check for the sheriff, which often decides the outcome.
4. It insures against nominating the first slot. If slot no. 1 nevertheless nominates a candidate, nothing terrible will happen. The worst variants: the sheriff has a black check, slot no. 1 is found, and the town goes to a guessing round for four people with a chance of around 50 percent; or slot no. 1 nominated a red and killed the sheriff, in which case the sheriff has two checks plus the found black colour of slot no. 1, and in the guessing round two blacks will fly off (around 75 percent and higher for the town). Even a simple "nominated a red and assigned a shot" gives the town a lawful 50 percent, which is higher than ordinary play.

From this Novik concludes: there is no reason to fear trusting slot no. 1.

The modern variant

Many strong tables use the sheriff's round with nominating slot no. 1, a car crash and going into the night with the full line-up. All players skip speeches, including at the car crash. There is no rigid scheme: the main thing is that everyone cuts their minutes short and nobody says goodbye to anyone. By the author's experience, the line of play with the sheriff's round is won by the town in nine games out of ten, and the blacks often give up at the second miss. This is purposeful play for a win, not entertainment, although the feeling of the town's unity is pleasant too.

When the sheriffs already have two checks, sheriff's rounds stop: you need to remove a black on one of the versions.

What happens at a repeated miss

The town has not removed anyone, so two versions of the game for ten people remain, with three checks each for the sheriffs by the critical round. With the second miss one black is removed on one of the versions (ten people), at night the mafia cuts the table to eight, in the vote the fourth players from different teams are removed, and in the guessing round the sixth. In total all three blacks from all the versions. Even if the town is a bit weak and the sheriffs did not manage to find all the colours, the pass in any case makes "a ton of red moves".

How to read the slots in the sheriff's round

The author gives several colours from personal experience:

• player no. 2 says "pass" without advice or instructions: red with a probability of around 95 percent;
• a player calls on everyone to pass: red (90 percent);
• slot no. 1 was trusted and nominated nobody: red (80 percent and higher).

These percentages are the author's estimates. They work in the first and second rounds. There is no single standard for a repeated miss at ten, so most likely a round with ten people and already two checks awaits you. With two known colours there is definitely a false sheriff and the teams of three against three are clearly defined. If someone suspects that slot no. 1 is mafia and will nominate a candidate, he joins him in a car crash. The town splits the table and goes into the night with the full line-up, and in the crossfire the players pass.

What the sheriff does

It is enough for the sheriff to pass or to say: "I see no sense in giving a position with a full table. I will give it later. Thank you, pass." It becomes harder to play against the sheriff: he does not assign an agreement, hides from the don and conceals the check. The speech is good even when the round was broken by an attack and a nomination.

What the black does

A black who sees a miss must not show confusion and says "pass" along with everyone. If your team has suffered a failure, do not give in to the temptation to break the round: a shout or a sudden attack is almost always read.

The objection "everyone's position must be announced"

Sometimes people say that with a full table you must hear every player's position. But with a general pass a new round begins in about two minutes, and nothing significant happens in that time, except that the mafia may agree. The wait is rewarded with additional checks. If you nevertheless gave up the round and continue talking, be sure to leave all the players at the table: if you remove a player, after the crossfire at night you get a critical round on the second version of the game, and the other sheriff may have two red checks, and then to balance you would have to remove the second sheriff, which is very weak play. You must not launch a balance at ten.

Voting at ten: the ban on breaking

Next to the sheriff's round stands the second part of the same chapter of Novik's: at ten you must not break the vote, even into a black. A break by a red is an ultimatum: either I am right or you lost by removing me next. There are four reasons not to break:

1. The mistake cannot be compensated: if a red breaks into a red, the civilians lose the chance of victory and lose without having received information.
2. Breaking is unethical: the person waited for the game, and cutting his game by twelve minutes is not nice.
3. By the critical round the reds do not manage to collect moves and interactions, and the choice of teams is difficult.
4. Mathematics: a break into a mafia trades a red's life for a black's life, and a red's life is dearer.

Compare two variants. With a break and a counterweight there are six of you, a mistake equals defeat, and the mafia gets the chance to break and win two against two. Without a break the balance game goes on: five players, a mistake is also defeat, but the game is safe from a "three against three" defeat, there is a lot of information, decisions are calm, the count is preserved.

Raising two conflicting players in round zero is also unprofitable for the reds: there is no count, the game is short, there is little information, and it is easier for the mafia to kill the sheriff on the very first night. The conditions under which raising is nevertheless justified are given at the third level (the lesson "Raising two in round zero").

Example

In the morning it is announced that nobody was killed in the night. Slot no. 1 says: "I nominate nobody, sheriff's round, everyone passes." The following slots in turn say "pass". At the last slot a player wants to give a long speech, the reds stop him gently: "as agreed, pass." The mafia, which had no agreement, again fails to hit the right player, and on the third night the town has three checks for each sheriff.

Self-check questions

1. How can you raise five people in a game without misses?
2. In what case does colouring through the pass in the sheriff's round not work?
3. Why is breaking into a red profitable for the mafia?
4. What fears do civilians feel when two are raised at ten? How does such play differ psychologically from the ordinary?
5. Is there a player who can break without consequences?

Practice

Play the sheriff's round ten times with different players on slot no. 1. Determine who violated the order and work out: is it a mistake or an attempt to break the round?

Typical mistakes

• Giving a speech instead of "pass".
• Removing a player instead of the round and getting a critical round on the second version.
• Breaking the vote at ten.
• Treating the author's percentages as exact.

Source of the idea. The chapters on the mafia's miss on the first night from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021) and "Voting at ten and the sheriff's round" from "Mafia in the Style of Zen" (2020). All the figures belong to the author.