Lifting three at nine | Mafia Game Academy

The author of "50 Shades of Red" begins the chapter with a quotation from a colleague at the table: "Three off the cart, easier for the sheriff." To understand the importance of the device, he tells the simplest, clearest and most frequently executed scenario of a mafia victory: the blacks kill the sheriff, playing against each other. When one player is checked as mafia, the other becomes red and wins two on two or in the guessing round. Most black victories at a table with experienced players are forged exactly this way, unless the town has quarrelled by itself. This is much simpler and more profitable than playing team against team (that is "wall against wall": two versions, the sheriff against the false sheriff).

The probability of a mafia victory with two lines of play, in the author's estimate, is 50 percent, and in a guessing round without the sheriff with everyone unchecked, 66 percent. So the reds need to create conditions in which it is unsafe to scatter (to play against each other) and unsafe to play without a second line, killing the sheriff. All this together is given by the threat of removing three players at nine.

Why lifting three always pays the civilians

The author gives an example: in a game there is almost always at least one player who by non-verbal behaviour and moves is red for the whole table (outside the first shot). He will most likely be killed or will decide between conflicting players. The only sheriff makes a red check: already three players out of nine are civilians. If three suspicious candidates are removed in the nearest vote and a red check is made, then even with the sheriff's death this leads to the town's victory: at five there will be two red checks and the civilian with whom everyone confidently played from round zero.

The author's arguments:

Lifting three is never advantageous to the mafia. If two blacks and one red were in the vote, the sheriff with one check can destroy the team by finding the last mafioso. At five there will be at least one more civilian and two more votes in which the last mafioso may be voted out. If at nine two blacks and one red were removed, the sheriff with a red check was killed, then a civilian was removed and the town passed into the guessing round, the town has removed two civilians by vote but the mafia still has not won. Lifting three gave the town an additional right to a mistake.
Is it not disadvantageous to lift one black and two reds? We count: we go into the night six strong with the sheriff alive, having lifted one mafioso and two reds. A shot at the sheriff, in the morning five, the critical round comes, as in a standard game. But the dead sheriff gives plus one colour to the table at five players, which would not be there if a single candidate were removed at nine. One red colour among five is practically equal to a guessing round at four with 50 percent for a win. A black colour will give a pass to the guessing round, and we have already realised the right to a mistake.
The fear of a three-on-three defeat is false. If a trio of reds stands in the tie vote and only one candidate was removed, then with the sheriff killed at night you lose this game anyway in 90 percent of cases, even if someone of the remaining was checked: the mafiosi sit too well, and in the critical round they lift the one remaining of the trio. Unwillingness to remove three is worse than the phantom risk of a three-on-three defeat.

The author's conclusion: lifting three players at nine is always advantageous to the civilians, and this move always hinders the mafia. The wish to lift three and stand in a trio with players black for you is a red move. Even by standing as a civilian with a black and a red player, you keep the sheriff alive, making his shooting less advantageous. The best option with a black card in a tie vote of three is to break regardless of the number of blacks in the trio.

How to choose the trio

You must remove the one who attacks you or your red check. If there are none, the author suggests variants:

any conflicting link of two players and the one who may be removed in a late round (the most suspicious);
the one you suspect, the one he himself suspects, and one suspicious for the table;
those you would remove from the game in turn without checks.

Who must not stand in the trio

The sheriff, the red check and anyone whom most consider red must not stand; where possible it is better to campaign for others. But if the town suspects you, you must leave with the suspicious candidates, without letting the mafia win through your departure from the game in a late round. To leave yourself in the trio is to raise the sheriff's probability of a black check, because he will not spend a check on you: that is advantageous.

How to split the table

The split is made by the player reddest for everyone or the one who wants to leave the game table not with the sheriffs. It is better to nominate as many candidates as possible for the vote in case one or two players "sit" this round as checks or sheriffs. The split must be announced to the town.

The default rule:

For the candidate under the first hands vote the whole trio of nominated.
For the candidate under the second hands, three players from the initial slots in ascending order.
Under the third hands, the remaining three slots in ascending order.

The author notes that this is slightly more complicated than the standard halving of the table at ten, and asks not to invent new incomprehensible sawings every time. The author's examples with a shot at no. 10:

Nominated no. 1, no. 3, no. 7: no. 1, no. 3, no. 7 for no. 1; no. 2, no. 4, no. 5 for no. 3; no. 6, no. 8, no. 9 for no. 7.
Nominated no. 7, no. 8, no. 9: no. 7, no. 8, no. 9 for no. 7; no. 1, no. 2, no. 3 for no. 8; no. 4, no. 5, no. 6 for no. 9.
Nominated no. 4, no. 1, no. 6: no. 4, no. 1, no. 6 for no. 4; no. 2, no. 3, no. 5 for no. 1; no. 7, no. 8, no. 9 for no. 6.

The vote is completely safe for the town. If any of the players under the first hands does not vote for the named candidate, the town finishes him off with all hands as mafia breaking the tie vote (or a player with zero understanding of the game). In case of a break there is no need to insure: a black player in the revote will break into himself anyway, such things are done consciously. Voting for yourself by a player under the first hands is a red move that helps the civilians win. Not playing with the town and a break are a black move.

The device as a detector

Since it is advantageous for the mafia to break the tie vote, the device can be used simply to work out the blacks. Thanks to it at nine you remove a certainly black player and expose those who are against sawing in a trio. Resistance to the lift is a black move. If the mafia breaks into itself, it does not mean that other blacks were in the vote with it. But if two break at once, that is another question.

Feints and the author's recommendations

For the sheriff. If you were revealed in the round at nine with a black check, do not name it. Say that the mafia is in the voiced trio for the lift, and who it is does not matter yet. The sheriff's feint with a black check: nominate a player and offer him to choose two players for the lift, arguing why he must certainly stand with his position. Having a checked mafioso, it is more advantageous for you to lift a trio in which your found black will certainly be.

If the town considers a trio with you or your red check. You need not reveal yourself. By a foul you voice: "I and the other slot (your red check) are not voted. A free vote or another trio." Only then, in the morning, you reveal yourself. Ideally this text is spoken by the red check covering the sheriff.

For the red. Provoke conflicting links to lift together. By motivation and reaction you will determine the blacks: an unwillingness to stand with a player suspicious to oneself gives away the mafiosi.

If the table is not ready for tie votes. The author admits that in practice the application can be painful: civilians break, make black moves, resist; only enlightenment helps. Then at least, being suspicious to the town, stand with the mafia (painting yourself red), or, being the only red check, saw three: the word of the red check is law.

Recommendations for the black (by the author)

A run-up for the case when everything is really bad. You are outside the lifted trio, and your mafioso stands under the first hands: break into him. A tie vote with a 4-1-4 or 4-0-5 spread is possible. You fly off in the round at seven, but your mafioso paints himself red and wins in the guessing round: the black broke into him.
A run-up to buy a hand in the critical round. Put your don or false sheriff into the trio. He reveals himself before the vote, there will be no tie vote, and by logic you will be on different teams with him, which buys the deciding vote by the count.
If your other two blacks sit well, break into yourself. That is not terrible.

The author's workshop

Learn to saw nine-player tables quickly. The first three examples on paper, the rest in your head. Who votes for which candidate under the universal tie vote?

Killed no. 7, nominated no. 2, no. 9, no. 10.
Killed no. 3, nominated no. 8, no. 1, no. 4.
Killed no. 10, nominated no. 6, no. 2, no. 8.
Killed no. 8, nominated no. 3, no. 1, no. 10.
Killed no. 2, nominated no. 5, no. 9, no. 4.
Killed no. 9, nominated no. 10, no. 5, no. 6.
Killed no. 1, nominated no. 7, no. 10, no. 3.
Killed no. 6, nominated no. 2, no. 5, no. 9.
Killed no. 4, nominated no. 1, no. 7, no. 6.
Killed no. 5, nominated no. 10, no. 3, no. 1.

Key

Written as "who votes: for whom". Checked against the rule and matches the answers in the appendix of the book.

No. 2, no. 9, no. 10: for no. 2; no. 1, no. 3, no. 4: for no. 9; no. 5, no. 6, no. 8: for no. 10.
No. 8, no. 1, no. 4: for no. 8; no. 2, no. 5, no. 6: for no. 1; no. 7, no. 9, no. 10: for no. 4.
No. 6, no. 2, no. 8: for no. 6; no. 1, no. 3, no. 4: for no. 2; no. 5, no. 7, no. 9: for no. 8.
No. 3, no. 1, no. 10: for no. 3; no. 2, no. 4, no. 5: for no. 1; no. 6, no. 7, no. 9: for no. 10.
No. 5, no. 9, no. 4: for no. 5; no. 1, no. 3, no. 6: for no. 9; no. 7, no. 8, no. 10: for no. 4.
No. 10, no. 5, no. 6: for no. 10; no. 1, no. 2, no. 3: for no. 5; no. 4, no. 7, no. 8: for no. 6.
No. 7, no. 10, no. 3: for no. 7; no. 2, no. 4, no. 5: for no. 10; no. 6, no. 8, no. 9: for no. 3.
No. 2, no. 5, no. 9: for no. 2; no. 1, no. 3, no. 4: for no. 5; no. 7, no. 8, no. 10: for no. 9.
No. 1, no. 7, no. 6: for no. 1; no. 2, no. 3, no. 5: for no. 7; no. 8, no. 9, no. 10: for no. 6.
No. 10, no. 3, no. 1: for no. 10; no. 2, no. 4, no. 6: for no. 3; no. 7, no. 8, no. 9: for no. 1.

Example (compiled for the Academy)

Nine players, no. 10 killed. Red no. 2 says in his minute: "I propose to lift no. 1, no. 3 and no. 7. We vote like this: no. 1, no. 3, no. 7 for no. 1; no. 2, no. 4, no. 5 for no. 3; no. 6, no. 8, no. 9 for no. 7. Whoever does not add a hand, we finish him off." No. 7 votes for no. 1 instead of himself. Everyone finishes off no. 7, the mafia is found. The town goes into the night six strong with the sheriff alive.

Self-check questions

Why is lifting three not advantageous to the mafia?
How to choose the trio and who must not stand in it?
What to do if a candidate did not add a hand?
How does the sheriff protect himself if the town considers a trio with him?

Practice

Solve the ten workshop tasks, three on paper and seven in your head. Then in three training games at nine announce the split yourself and watch who resists.

Typical mistakes

Standing in the trio as the sheriff.
Not explaining the split to the voters.
Insuring against a break, though the black will break into himself in the revote.
Thinking that with a single sheriff the trio is not sawn.

Source of the idea. The chapter "Lifting three at nine players" from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021). The percentages belong to the author. The key to the tasks was written by us according to the rule, the example, questions and practice were compiled for the Academy.