Good and bad play by the mafia in different rounds

In Mafia there are few chance events that change the result of a game. These are the sheriff checking a sweet player, a miss by the blacks, or an unexpected colouring speech by someone you planned to remove. All the other events follow smoothly from what happens in the early rounds. Round zero is the basis and complement of the round at nine, the critical round draws conclusions from all the early dynamics, and so on. The backstory either strengthens or worsens your position. It determines whether you will be able to buy votes in the round you picked for victory.

This lesson gives guideposts for good solo and team play in each round. For each round there are three levels: the minimum (what you cannot do without), the norm (how it should be) and top-level play (how the strongest play). It also gives the signs by which you can tell things are going badly.

Round zero

Goal. Determine an approximate strategy for victory and find three or four players for yourself to remove. Create a situation in which at least one black survives to the end of the game and two candidates from this list are removed.

The number four is not accidental. Most likely the sheriff will give one of the candidates by a check, and another will turn red for the town as the game goes on. The worst layout is taken: the sheriff is killed on the night before the critical round and the last black wins the guessing round.

Minimum. Do not run into a sheriff's check. Still say, if not a red speech, then at least a grey one, so that you can influence the table in future. The redder you are, the more people listen to you and take your position and arguments into account. If the sheriff makes a black check and you are not the false sheriff, the game will drag on, there will be a balance and the mafia's position in the later rounds will worsen. So in your speech you must send someone else for a check with arguments: preferably your own false sheriff, an ordinary red or a nuisance to the team.

Norm. Give a red speech and receive no complaints or suspicions from the players. Become a sweet player. In the ideal, fairy-tale layout, with a strong black team, the whole mafia are red players to the civilians. This is the absolute to aim for: if you yourself spoke well, you can call red a mafioso who did not give a bad speech and take him under your wing. Any arguments can be invented. Then without a second line you can simply kill the sheriff and win three against three, giving the town no extra information.

Top level. Leadership belongs to you, and the reds look for the mafia somewhere else.

How to tell things are going badly. Leadership sits with a red player against whom the mafia is not playing. It is even worse if the blacks are attacked by him. There is no non-verbal contact with the town, and no players to remove in the coming rounds. The reds are not playing with the mafia. In this case you must urgently become active and turn the table in your favour, otherwise it is the end for the blacks.

Round one (nine players)

For a three-against-three win, and for comfortable play on mixed colours, you need to raise a civilian at nine. In this round the table holds the most unclear players who could "potentially" be mafia. There are not enough checks to work out and line up the teams at once. By raising a red you drive the town into the critical round and give the black team the chance to choose in which round to win.

Minimum. Remove a red not checked by either side, using any number of black or red hands.

Norm. Remove an unchecked civilian with red hands only. The black votes are thrown against each other (better against your own false sheriff, who will reveal himself in the next round). This creates a base for counterweights and a competent separation of teams. In the critical round you can boldly declare that the real sheriff's team removed a red player, and win three against three, having in the archive the argument about the counterweight and two sweet hands.

Top level. The removed player is red in the eyes of the table, while you stayed in the background and were never called black.

How to tell things are going badly. It is bad when the sheriff is alive with a black check, in the worst of the layouts. You need to create an opposite viable version. If a mafia player is removed, then in the next round you must start a balance with a win in a late round. For that, before the vote you must have a viable plan for victory, a bet on two against two or the guessing round. It is quite bad when the civilians do not want to consider the false sheriff's line, the sheriff has two known black colours and there are no candidates to remove. All this follows from poor speeches in round zero, the absence of a dynamic sheriff and an abundance of players against whom the mafia is not playing because of the lack of a guiding position.

The critical round at seven

At this stage of the game we either win or strengthen the position of our blacks for the late rounds. In this round, in the absence of a second line, the sheriff should already be dead.

Minimum. Remove a red if you have not done so yet. If a mafia player leaves in this round too, the last black will have problems with the count and logic. He will not be able to play against many civilians, since they will not fit into the team with those who have already left: they were removed by red hands. The minimum: removed, gathered votes against him.

Norm. Victory three against three, or a balance with a strong false-sheriff line that allows you to win in a late round. Forge the victory while the iron is hot, while not much information on the votes has built up and the table is full of civilians whose hand could be yours. Buy the votes of all the red players without exception. Two red votes are also a good result. You should always try to win over the maximum number of hands: if one changes his mind, the second remains. Backup options have never hurt anyone.

Top level. You stay surrounded by civilians but win, because the hands have already been bought.

How to tell things are going badly. At night you are left alone among civilians; you have no viable version from the black team and no players to remove.

The critical round at five

At strong red tables it sometimes happens that there are not enough civilians to remove from the game. If before this you did everything right (removed one red), you can painlessly raise your own badly sitting black and so strengthen your position. This is an extreme measure for when you cannot gather hands against a red at the moment. If you can win two against two and do not, it is a sign of bad play.

Minimum. Do not lose the round with the whole team. Raise a civilian if you have not done so yet, or strengthen your position by removing your own.

Norm. Remove a red with four hands for a two-against-two win. If someone in the town suspects a shortfall of hands, you can say: "The mafia is giving up one of its own to strengthen its position. So a shortfall in this round is not an indicator."

Top level. Win two against two without revealing your link with your partners, and with a backup option for the guessing round.

How to tell things are going badly. If you have not lost yet, things are not so sad. Trouble in this round comes if you have no viable version from the black team and no players to remove.

The guessing round

Minimum. Buy one vote and win.

Top level. Take the choosing position. Create a situation in which the civilians persuade and canvass you, proving their own redness and the opponent's blackness.

Practicum

1. Consider the situations from this lesson in which your black team is doing badly. Come up with a strategy for victory, a speech and arguments for each.
2. Which techniques of the civilian town block a three-against-three victory? How do you stop the blacks from winning if they play at the top level?

Application

1. In round zero speak red.
2. In round one remove a civilian.
3. Win three against three where possible.
4. Create favourable ground for the late rounds.

Self-check questions

1. Describe the minimum, the norm and the maximum when playing at eight, six and four people.
2. Players 1, 2, 3 and 4 are civilians and play with each other. Write the best speech you can for a black on the fifth slot.

Typical mistakes

• Setting the goal of "surviving" and forgetting to choose the round for victory.
• Removing a red with black hands.
• Waiting for the guessing round when you have a chance at two against two.
• Not preparing a backup plan in the round at five.

Source of the idea. The chapter "Good and bad play by the mafia in different rounds" from Dmitry Novik's book "Mafia in the Style of Zen" (2020). The wording of the examples and the explanations are ours.