The guessing round: speech, choice and removing hands

The guessing round is the final vote. The author recalls a dialogue after a game: "How did you guess he was mafia?" "Hard to explain... in the guessing round it was me, a checked red and him." This lesson shows how a game comes to the guessing round, how a guessing round at four differs from one at three, and how to speak and vote in it.

The guessing round at four

Strictly speaking there should be no guessing rounds at four: at six players you must lift two. But if a black broke into himself or deliberately missed at four, the layout changes. It is easy to find out whether there is mafia in a pair: you pick two suspicious players and split the table between them; if it does not break, one of them is black. The town goes into the night, then the guessing round at three awaits.

If only two candidates are on the vote, breaking it is harder. Good players will insure or even take their hands off the table so that the votes fly to the last candidate. In theory a mafia player may be outside the nominated pair, but the author suggests not considering this: the probability is small. Reds must not break the tie split: that is a black move. Why nominate everyone in turn at four if the players have already passed all the rounds? At the author's tables the probability that an unsuspected player suddenly turns black and the table votes him out is extremely small; the chance of splitting wrongly or sawing into yourself is much higher.

(Whether lifting two is allowed in a guessing round at four, see the level-three lesson.)

The guessing round at three

The final vote. Besides the techniques from the chapters for reds, two key tools are added: analysis of removing hands and building teams.

The removing hand

A removing hand differs from an ordinary one, after which a player leaves the table, by two signs: a) the player gathered hands against a certain candidate (explained to the table that the chosen player is mafia); b) in the vote the player left with four hands or with a difference of no more than one hand from the one who stayed.

Examples. At nine the votes split three, four and two. All four votes are removing: if any of these players changed his mind, another candidate would have left. At nine five, three, one: of the five only the hand that votes against the candidate is removing; the others do not count, because it could be a civilian who spoke very badly, or a black after whose speech it was easier for the team to be rid of him.

In the ordinary course of a game three candidates have been removed from the table by the guessing round (at nine, seven, five), two of them mafia. To work it out you must build teams from the votes and the gathering of hands, then join the removing hands with the team building. Five ways to find a red:

1. A player who removed blacks is red.
2. A player who removed all the candidates is a civilian.
3. A player who split the table and put a hand against a black candidate is a civilian.
4. A player for whose removal the blacks gathered hands is red.
5. A player who could have left because the blacks voted for his candidacy is a civilian.

Strong and weak position

If one of the players left in the guessing round called another unambiguously red or bought his hand, then of that pair the mafia is the one who persuaded. Example: you are red no. 7 in a guessing round (at the table no. 7, no. 5, no. 2). In rounds nine and seven no. 5 called the second player unambiguously red, so for you only no. 5 is black. The combination of interactions over the game and their analysis is called position in this round: we vote against the player with the weaker position.

1. If one called another black and the second did not play against him (does not), the second has the weaker position.
2. If one called another red, the first has a much weaker position.
3. If one of the players was left red by a departing civilian, he has the stronger position.

Many add to position the moves made, social dynamics and other methods, that is, they apply the balanced-choice principles from the lesson "Quality decisions".

The speech in the guessing round

Always start the speech by nominating a player. Do it until it becomes a habit: many games are lost stupidly because under stress a player forgot to nominate the mafia. After the candidate is accepted, spend 25 seconds explaining why in this game you cannot possibly be black: moves made, votes, dynamics, strength of position. Give concisely everything that paints you red. A sluggish game throughout the match almost always turns into a poor speech in the guessing round: you did not manage to prove your redness by actions. So invest in the game process.

In the remaining 30 seconds give arguments for the blackness of one side or the other (there should be enough of them over a game). The main thing to manage: to persuade the remaining civilian that a) you are a civilian; b) the other player is black. Your goal is to buy the hand of your own player and remove the black. You cannot hope the other will make the right decision: put the full stop yourself.

How to vote correctly

You make the decision and put your hand against the one you consider black. That is all. If there is no clearly civilian among the candidates, nomination in a circle is used: each nominates the next so that all three are on the vote. A typical beginner's mistake is to split the table. It is a shame if in an hour of play you have not worked out who is who; but half the trouble is elsewhere: by dropping your vote on the player under the first hands you automatically lose to the black sitting further on. If he is good, he will add a vote or say that he was the one splitting and you were breaking. You must not vote against yourself or split the table.

In a frame: splitting the table onto the player under the first hands means losing to the black nominated after him. So make the decision in advance.

Analysis of a task from the book

Condition: this is an advanced task from the chapter on votes at seven and five. Answers: after the counterweight two mafia remain at the table; between no. 4 and no. 2 there is only one black; for no. 5 the mafia is either us, or no. 1 and no. 2, but since no. 4 considers no. 1 red (buys his vote), he, being a civilian, loses by ignoring the count and logic. The most likely team is no. 4 and no. 5, the less likely no. 5 and no. 2. The third question was a check: work out no. 5. He is the one we remove.

Self-check questions

1. The paragraph on removing hands and team building gives five ways to find a red. In what percentage of your games are they true? Write down the number.
2. Open the course contents and say out loud what you understood from each lesson. That is the dry remainder of your real learning.
3. Read the lessons for reds from the black's point of view. How can each point be turned over and used for a mafia win? What must you not apply yourself because it harms the black team?

Practice

For three recordings of guessing rounds, make a table of removing hands and team building before the guessing round; check it against the final choice.

Typical mistakes

• Forgetting to nominate a candidate at the start of the speech.
• Splitting the table in the guessing round.
• Not explaining why you are red.
• Waiting for the other player to work it out himself.

Source of the idea. The chapter "The guessing round" from Dmitry Novik's book "Mafia in the Style of Zen" (2020).