Assessing the level of play | Mafia Game Academy

How do you tell a strong player from a weak one? The author of "50 Shades of Red" notes that the question constantly comes up when tables are put together for online play, for closed VIP games and for the top league of local clubs. Realistically assessing your own strengths and weaknesses is harder still. In his experience an indecent number of players assess their level inadequately: either they consider themselves very cool and the rest stupid (often), or they position themselves as extremely weak (much more rarely). Where does this opinion come from? The author jokes: "In psychiatry it works like this: whoever put on the white coat first is the doctor." This lesson looks at what you can really rely on.

Indirect criteria and why they are weak

The generally accepted signs of a "cool player" that the author lists:

a prize place at a large (40+ players) or regional tournament;
a place in the top twenty of the MWT rating (the rating of the Mafia Intellectual Game Federation, uniting players from different cities and countries under common rules);
online: the ability to split the table in round zero between slots three and five and knowledge of dynamic agreements;
the amount of time played;
absence of the mistakes described in the chapter on basic mistakes, the ability to set agreements, to understand all gestures and to understand that you are black to someone by the count.

The author says directly that knowing and understanding the basics is only the line separating a beginner from one who is "in the subject" and objectively is not a criterion of strength. You can read a couple of chapters, play a few evenings, and few will expose the inexperience, especially if you say ready phrases with a clever look such as "positionally played wrong", "found the colour by anti-logic", "he would not have played like this as mafia", "between 1-2-3-4-5-6 there is a pair of blacks" (the author calls this irony, but "every joke has only a share of joke").

Extra points are also a poor guide: judges hold different views on whom, for what and in what amounts to award extras, and at the present stage of the game's development the points are too subjective.

An objective measure: the ratio of wins to losses

The author proposes relying on win and loss statistics: either you win, which confirms a high level of play, or you lose. These figures really reflect the ability to play, and distance smooths out the luck factor. Win rate (winrate) in Mafia is the ratio of games won to the total number played.

Data from the book

The author analysed many sources and gave data of live games and tournaments from 2014 to 2020 from the site mafbank.ru. These are mostly statistics of the Siberian region, because the largest sample is there. From the table the author derives the ratio for a player of average level:

statistically in seven games out of ten a red card comes up, in three a black;
out of 12,195 games, 8,536.5 games were played as civilian with 43.8 percent wins, and 3,658.5 games as mafia with 56.2 percent wins;
the average win rate is 47.5 percent. Winning slightly under half of your games, you can consider yourself a player of the average level.

As an example the author shows his own data: on the site inetmafia.ru 364 games, 191 wins, 52.47 percent, a fairly experienced player, though not a top one. There are separate columns for each role.

Grandmasters

The author also gives a table of grandmaster statistics from the results of live offline tournaments of 2019. The average win rate of the best players is 54.96 percent. The top players win fewer than two games in three. And on average the difference over a distance between an ordinary and the best player is less than one won game in ten (47.5 versus 55 percent), while each of these grandmasters has more than three years of experience and more than one thousand games.

Worth noting here: in another chapter the author calls "7 out of 10" a benchmark for a top player and gives the example of a master of the game in 2019: first place in the MWT rating with a win rate of 57.25 percent, and 68 percent at the final tournament (17 of 25 games). These figures belong to the author and refer to specific samples; compare with them carefully. The author stresses that every effective concept and optimal personal action shifts the win rate toward 100 percent: before studying the book you might have won 45 percent of games, and step by step tools, moves and speech constructions raise the win percentage; some "moves" give plus two, others plus one, some simply stop you from throwing away potentially winning games.

The luck factor and distance

Mafia is a complex game in which luck also influences victory. There are lucky tournaments and sessions when everything "goes" and the head works well, and there are periods when the game "does not go". The author considers this normal: distance smooths and puts everything in its place. Those same 7 percent of win rate difference is just one won game out of 14. So begin counting your win percentage after fifty games and keep trying to raise it.

The halo effect and the power of authority

One of the main factors of persuasion the author calls authority: if a person's opinion carries weight in the eyes of others, it is easier for him to influence decisions. The author observes again and again how, at the appearance of a renowned, titled person, critical thinking switches off in people. A master of the game, a grandmaster or the best player of the club simply spins the table as he likes. Players themselves hand over the reins of the game, the extra points and a possible win when they find themselves on different teams from him. This "halo effect" is one of the reasons why with fame playing becomes easier and easier: who is less ashamed to lose to, a grandmaster or an unknown beginner? Will you go against the coolest player in the region? What are the consequences for reputation if you are wrong?

The author offers a question to think over: do image and fame or real skill give the raised win percentage? And he recommends assessing any renowned player as an ordinary one, which he is: a titled player is a person like you and makes mistakes only slightly less often than average. The key thought of the chapter: meeting a renowned player, remember that there is no one more worthy of victory than yourself.

The three levels of "experienced player" by the author of "Zen"

In "Mafia in the Style of Zen" the author divides experience into three steps:

An experienced player, unlike a beginner, finds players of his own and the other team with a high degree of accuracy.
A good player understands his image at the game table and behaves with regard to how he is perceived.
The best, combining these parameters, produces at will good logic and emotions, and his play as a civilian is practically indistinguishable from play as mafia.

Hence the author's practical advice: track your own actions, how "red" they are in the eyes of the town; improve how you speak and what you say; pick out what works in assessing the mafia and what does not. And the path from beginner to master as the author sees it: learn the gestures and agreements; understand when and how the game ends; stop making serious mistakes; learn to speak correctly in your minute; stop making mathematical and logical mistakes about the game dynamics; polish your style and win tournaments.

How to assess yourself (the Academy's method)

Keep a log: date, table, role, result, the main mistake or the main successful move.
Count the win rate separately for reds and for blacks, then overall. Compare with the author's benchmarks (47.5 percent average, about 55 percent for the best in his table), remembering the difference in samples and tables.
After fifty games re-assess the result every twenty-five games.
Review games regardless of the outcome: won ones also contain mistakes, lost ones successful moves.
If the win rate is low, look not for a "secret trick" but for a repeating mistake: the slot where you lose, the role, the type of table.

Example (written for the Academy)

A player played sixty games: 28 wins as red out of 42 and 12 wins as black out of 18. Total 40 of 60, about 67 percent. A good result, but first you must find out at what table it was obtained. If the games were at a weak table, the figures cannot be compared with the author's table. If the tables are mixed, it makes sense to watch another forty games. The player notices that he wins 67 percent as red and 67 as black too: this is even play, so he needs to look for what else to improve.

Self-check questions

Why are prizes and ratings not quite an objective measure?
What does the difference of 47.5 and 55 percent show?
Why should the assessment start after fifty games?
How does the halo effect affect your decisions at the table?

Practice

Collect the statistics of your last thirty games and split them by role. Find two games in which the main mistake was yours and two where the table helped you. Write the conclusion in the log.

Typical mistakes

Assessing yourself by one tournament.
Believing titles rather than moves.
Ignoring the difference in table levels.
Comparing yourself with grandmasters in the first twenty games.

Source of the idea. The chapter "How to assess your level of play" and the "Introduction" (on the master's win rate) from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021), and the chapter on the simplest assessment of players from "Mafia in the Style of Zen" (2020). All figures belong to the author and refer to his samples. The log method, example, questions and practice were written for the Academy.