Round zero: what the red player does

Round zero is the first day of the game, when nobody knows anybody. The blacks have just met and agreed on a plan, and in modern games the mafia team has an agreement that allows it to assign any player for a shot right during round zero. The key to an almost guaranteed win for them is killing the sheriff. So a red player in round zero has exactly two tasks.

Convey his red colour to the town.
Not allow the sheriff to be killed and make it as hard as possible for the don to find him.

Why protecting the sheriff is the civilians' main task

The author of "50 Shades of Red" gives statistics on the percentage of games the black team wins in different situations:

with the sheriff shot on the first night: about 75 percent (the author's personal observation);
in a guessing round with three unknowns: 66 percent;
with one black among five players at the table without checks: 63 percent;
in a "wall against wall" game (sheriff and false sheriff, known teams, one civilian makes the choice): 50 percent;
in a guessing round with one checked red: 50 percent;
in a guessing round of four: 50 percent;
with one version of the game and three checks over the game: 25 percent (the author's personal observation).

All the other numbers are derived mathematically. The author's statistical conclusion: with a living sheriff at the table the civilians will not lose over the long run more than half the time. In all other situations the mafia, through a split and the town's mistakes, wins "three against three", "two against two", "one against one". So a civilian's duty is to protect the sheriff from a shot, and the sheriff must hide from the don as long as possible: every check gives the town reliable information without errors and distortions. In essence, with good play by the red team, all the work can be done by the town's leader, who colours the table with his checks.

Playing a civilian begins with the agreement

Playing an ordinary civilian begins during the agreement itself. At this time the don with his accomplices can look for the sheriff "by posture". Ordinary red players, as a rule, sit relaxed and sway to music. A player who sits tense and constrained can with high probability be the leader of the reds, because the sheriff's card causes excitement. Such a player may even be assigned to the "static" (the first kill) for the first night.

So it makes sense to sit tensely with an ordinary red card in order to cover the real sheriff. The more skilful reds are restrained and tense at the agreement, the higher the probability that the town's leader will survive to the end of the game, and then at least half of the win rate is already in your pocket. The host may note your actions with points, and the mafia may "gift" you the chance to leave the first-killed player's word with extra points (under the 2020 rules, as the author points out).

How the mafia understands from the first speeches that a player is not the sheriff

The don and his team look for signs that a player is not the sheriff. The following actions point to that:

The player says he wants to do a tie split in round zero and give a position.
Shows a definitely black player at the table with gestures.
Aggressively gets into conflict with another player.
Says: "I do not mind my own check" or "check me".
Shows two candidates for a check in round zero.
Wants to stand in round zero with someone.
Cuts his speech short early.
Assigns a shot or says he will break the tie split.
A joker, a wit, too relaxed.
Shows or says in his speech that the sheriff may be someone else, and does not play against him.
Says in his speech that he is not the sheriff and will not reveal himself.
Puts a hand for his own raise without a found black team.
Easily and for no reason takes remarks.

The author does not recommend that a real sheriff use these techniques. You may hide from the don and the mafia, but when a false sheriff appears you will be in a weak position: the black player will bring the arguments from the list to strengthen his line and "eat" the civilians' leader. For example: "He wanted a tie split, so he is not the sheriff", "he showed two checks, so he is not the sheriff". Similarly, as a real sheriff, you can bring these arguments against a false sheriff.

Signs by which a player is kept as a sheriff candidate

There are additional signs that say it is most likely the sheriff:

Plays very carefully, phrases his speech as "will play, rather red" and almost does not use attacking wording. If he attacks, it is softly: "I suspect".
The most concentrated and thoughtful player among the civilians.
The most tense player among the civilians.
The most attentive player among the civilians.
Plays with everyone who spoke before him, though he indicates that he most likely played with one black.
Says that a check on his candidate in town cannot happen: "I will not be checked".
Formulates the need for a check with the words "will be checked" (confidently) or "I will check".
Does not want a tie split and does not want to give a position in round zero.
Suspects the one whose speech is typical of the sheriff.
Asks other players again whom they played with.

As a result of such an assessment by the black team, usually (adjusted for the realities of the author's games) one or two players remain as the sheriff. One of them is killed, the other is checked. If the sheriff is killed on the first night, the town is doomed to a hard game with low chances. If the leader of the reds is killed on the night after the vote at nine, that is also bad, though less catastrophic.

A civilian's sheriff-style speech

Consequently, even one civilian who spoke "like a sheriff" can almost double the red team's chances: he will be killed instead of the real one or checked. And if "sheriff speeches" come from most of the civilians, the mafia will have a hard time. By the author's logic, evidence of not understanding the game is a civilian's conscious refusal of the chance to be taken for the sheriff or to cover him as a red check. Every non-sheriff speech becomes a nail in the coffin of the town's real leader and lowers the civilians' chance of victory.

The red player's rules in round zero

On slot No. 1 always ask not to be sawed, and if they split anyway, not to raise and not to break.
On any slots do not show a black player with gestures.
Do not stand in counterweights.
Do not ask to be checked.
Play softly, and start hard only from the round at nine players: this is how sheriffs speak, and with our speech we help the town hide the real one.
Do not give colours thoughtlessly. Where one should doubt and give a careful position ("will play"), our heroes confidently give "red". If you call a mafia player red, you will leave in his place. If you call a red black, then with a red check of the sheriff on your candidate they will vote together with you. Misunderstanding the principle of giving a colour breaks positional play and leads to quarrels, mixed colours and unnecessary counterweights.

By and large, with a red card we exclude all the points by which you can be recognised as having no role.

And if you are the sheriff

It is easier for the sheriff to hide than for a civilian to pass himself off as the town's leader. Unlike an ordinary red, you can attack a player by calling him black. But the author recommends checking the attacked slot, or the one who called red the player you attacked, and explaining it in the speech. If you find a black, all is well. If you find a red, then by the logic of the game it would be unprofitable for you to give a red check to one you suspected, so this is a fairly strong red line: you strengthen the version and at the same time hide from the mafia.

A leader of the reds who designates his role harms the town. Revealing yourself before the critical round is foolish and is a black move, especially when all ten players are still at the table.

Feints

The author calls a feint a useful decoy by a red player: a red may deceive, leave things unsaid and be sly if it helps the town. The use of feints, in his experience, is often rewarded with extra points from the host. They are analysed in detail in the following lessons.

For the red: deliver a sheriff-style speech with emphasis.
For the black: nominate your own black for a car crash, ask for a check on your own don, point the sheriff at the first shot, and on a late slot throw out your own "first shot" from the team or nominate him for a raise (play and argument on anti-logic).

Example

Nine players; red No. 6 understands that the sheriff needs help hiding. He is slightly tense at the agreement and in his minute says: "I will play with No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4, rather red, No. 3 I suspect. I do not need to be checked, I will be checked if anything." For the don No. 6 is now a sheriff candidate. The real sheriff on the ninth slot speaks more relaxed, the don hesitates and kills No. 6. The town kept its sheriff.

Questions for self-check

Which points of the "not the sheriff" list do you most often break with a red card?
Why is it beneficial for the sheriff to attack only the one he is ready to check?
What happens if a civilian refuses a sheriff-style speech and a false sheriff uses these same signs?

Practice

Record a round zero played by your group. For each of the ten players note which sheriff signs he showed, and guess whom the mafia killed. Did it match reality? Then play a game in which, with a red card, you deliberately sit tense and speak "like a sheriff".

Typical mistakes

Joking and relaxing with a red card without understanding that you are being read.
Refusing a sheriff-style speech out of fear of "what if they kill me". Better they kill you than the sheriff.
Showing a black with gestures.
Revealing yourself as the sheriff before the critical round.
Giving hard colours in round zero.

Source of the idea. The chapters "Round zero" and "What to focus attention on in a player's minute" from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021). The statistics and percentages belong to the author (some of them are personal observations). The example, questions and practice were written for the Academy.