Lifting two in the guessing round at four

Lifting several suspicious players at once is one of the strongest tools of the modern town. It raises the probability of winning and punishes the mafia for a mistake, a miss. This lesson gathers the technique of lifting two at four, the rules for splitting the table and the dispute over whether this lift is needed at all.

Why lift several at all

When in a guessing round at four the town votes for a single candidate, the dry chance of the town is 25 percent. If two are lifted, the chance grows to 50 percent (the author's estimate). If the pair is made up of players from different teams, the town's victory is one hundred percent. Lifting three at six with three found reds also gives a one hundred percent victory, lifting four at eight with known teams wins mathematically.

The threat of removing several suspicious players at once at nine provokes the mafia into a second line of play, and therefore gives additional known colours through reveals and checks. If there is no second line, even better: lifting the suspicious gives the town an additional right to a mistake, that is, the chance to vote out a civilian without losing. For the win the blacks need to remove only two reds, and when several are removed by a vote at once, the town gets invaluable help. Even if two reds were removed, the town has not lost: civilians are still the majority. Besides, the sheriff's circle of checks shortens and the probability of a black check grows.

Three general rules for the whole section on lifts:

Never remove the sheriff and the false sheriff before the critical round.
All lifts and tie votes must be explained to the participants of the vote. A player who sabotages an objectively favourable tie vote is either mafia or poorly understands the game.
The verbal explanation should be duplicated with gestures, showing on the fingers who votes where.

Activation, agitation and realisation of a tie vote with the removal of many suspicious players is a red move.

Priority of choosing two candidates

If there is a red check, it chooses the two candidates.
The killed one in his final speech leaves a candidate for removal, and that one decides with whom to stand.
The killed one leaves a red, and that one chooses the pair that will leave the table.
A player who by the game must certainly be voted chooses himself who will leave with him.

Do not break the car crash

Never break a car crash into a black: it will not give additional points. Instead, voice who is certainly mafia for you and vote for removing two. You may be mistaken, and the second candidate will turn out to be black. Even if you subjectively worked it out, one lost game in a hundred is not worth it. By the author's own observation, a break by a red into a red happens not in one game in a hundred but in every twentieth and more often, which makes about 5 percent of win rate in a similar situation (the author's estimate, adjust for your own table). Remove two, agreeing in advance who votes for whom.

The universal tie vote: the lowest-number rule

Do not be creative in splitting tables: drawing up a scheme by mood wastes time and energy. It is much more profitable to have a template rule. The universal tie vote answers which exact civilian votes together with the suspicious candidate: the choice is handed to the slot with the lowest serial number.

The algorithm for four players and two nominated:

for removing the first candidate vote the one nominated second and the civilian with the lowest number;
for removing the second vote the remaining two.

Example 1. At the table no. 1, no. 2, no. 3, no. 4, nominated no. 4 and no. 2. For removing no. 4 the hands are put by no. 1 and no. 2, for removing no. 2 vote no. 3 and no. 4.

Example 2. At the table no. 2, no. 5, no. 9, no. 10, nominated no. 9 and no. 10. For removing no. 9 no. 10 and no. 2 put hands, for removing no. 10 players no. 5 and no. 9.

In a guessing round at four the rule plays a small role, because splitting is simple even without it. But it will be useful in complicated situations: lifting three at six, four at eight and three at nine are built on it. It is not dogma: if the table is split by another red, vote as he says.

Should two be lifted: two camps

The author of "Mafia in the Style of Zen" admits that society has split: some lift two in the guessing round at four, others do not. Lifting two is possible in two situations: there was a break at ten or the mafia killed nobody at night.

Arguments for lifting two (weakening the blacks).

When the mafia misses, the town gets one more right to a mistake for the late critical rounds.
It is disadvantageous for the blacks to break at ten, even into the sheriff: it gives the exact number of mafiosi in every round, drags the game out and helps the civilians count and build teams. In such a game the reds can break more boldly at zero: broke into a black, limited the number of mafia wins.
After a miss you cannot give your own black as black, killing the sheriff at night is less advantageous.

Arguments for play without a lift (strengthening the blacks).

The mafia has a reason to break at zero, especially into the leader of the reds; the civilians lose their only right to a mistake. Breaking is always advantageous, regardless of ethics.
The mafia can make tactical misses.
The mafia can break into itself at six; with two sheriffs you can give your own black as black.

The author notes that for most players known to him the game is built on spectacle, variety and mystery, not on winning as such: the opening is the zero rounds, the centre of the game is action, the climax is the guessing round. Lifting two kills the final stage in the last round and shifts it to the round at six. He advises answering two questions for yourself: whether a miss is an unconditional mistake which must be punished, or can be a tactical element, and whether you play for victory in rigid frames or for solving tasks and spectacle (tournament play differs greatly from ordinary: the number of deaths of experienced players in it is often above acceptable norms).

The author's position in "Mafia in the Style of Zen": the rules of the game are not unshakable, they are written by people like you. You can vote in your club and play in your own way, and at a tournament adjust the strategy to the regulations. He is convinced that lifting two at four should be banned, while at six lifting is allowed. A break at ten can be settled by amendments: in case of a break at zero the player does not leave the table; lifting two in the guessing round only in case of a break at zero; in a guessing round at four a mafia victory is declared if on a repeat shootout among two players there is no black, and the two players are not removed. The main argument: by the author's observation, in 80 percent of games the mafia wins not through its own actions but through the weak play of the civilians. Limiting the blacks is wrong: the level of the town's play must be improved.

What matters for learning is this: the decision remains with the club and the regulations. Always find out the nuances of the game in places new to you and read the tournament regulations.

The mafia's tactical miss

If lifting two is not allowed, a tactical miss is available to the mafia: a miss as a deliberate move. The decision is made only by the don.

At ten. A risky device in combination with the sheriff's round: the black one closing the round nominates the sheriff for the vote (he leaves as the only candidate) and then assigns a shot. If slot no. 1 did not hit the leader of the reds and removed him by the shot, no trouble: what matters is that the sheriff does not have two black checks, then a guessing round at four unchecked awaits. For success you need enough redness and a request not to nominate and not to saw.
At eight. The miss is tactical if you have already removed one red and have a false sheriff. The maximum advantage in two cases: black no. 2 closes the round, he is given a red check, asks that nobody be nominated, and if they nominate, he leaves and splits the table so that the mafia breaks; or player no. 3 (or no. 4 if no. 2 was killed in the first night) opens the round and nominates a red under the first hands, the mafiosi stage a mixed colour and break.
At six. There is no unity in the town, the only red check plays with the blacks, your black sits well and opens or closes the round, or you are the last mafia: by missing you create the appearance of two blacks.
At four. Two living red checks on different lines: you keep them to set them at odds. Or the town has no unity: take the choosing position and break with the win.

The tactical miss is especially recommended to people with a weak game image: you are surely not capable of such cunning, so you are red. Do not use it if lifting two at four is allowed.

How to split the table in practice

If there are only two candidates on the vote, breaking is harder: good players insure or even take their hands away so that the votes fly to the last candidate. The author does not consider the situation when a mafioso is outside the nominated pair: its probability is small. Breaking the tie vote as a civilian is not allowed, it is a black move. Yes, many say nominate everyone in turn, but that is right for a guessing round at three, and at four what would it give? The probability that someone not previously suspected suddenly turns black and the table votes him out is extremely small, while the probability of a wrong split or a tie vote into yourself is much higher.

Workshop: splitting in your head

Determine who votes where by the universal rule, without paper. Answers below.

At the table no. 1, no. 3, no. 6, no. 7, nominated no. 6 and no. 3.
At the table no. 2, no. 4, no. 5, no. 8, nominated no. 8 and no. 2.
At the table no. 3, no. 4, no. 9, no. 10, nominated no. 4 and no. 10.
At the table no. 1, no. 2, no. 5, no. 9, nominated no. 5 and no. 9.
At the table no. 1, no. 6, no. 7, no. 10, nominated no. 1 and no. 6.
At the table no. 2, no. 5, no. 8, no. 10, nominated no. 10 and no. 5.

Answers: 1) no. 3 and no. 1 for no. 6, no. 6 and no. 7 for no. 3; 2) no. 2 and no. 4 for no. 8, no. 5 and no. 8 for no. 2; 3) no. 10 and no. 3 for no. 4, no. 9 and no. 4 for no. 10; 4) no. 9 and no. 1 for no. 5, no. 2 and no. 5 for no. 9; 5) no. 6 and no. 7 for no. 1, no. 10 and no. 1 for no. 6; 6) no. 5 and no. 2 for no. 10, no. 8 and no. 10 for no. 5.

For the black

A black in a guessing round at four looks for the chance to break or to nominate a red under the first hands. Knowing the splitting rules shows where the reds will go wrong. If lifting two is allowed, prepare the miss in advance, not at the last moment.

Self-check questions

Is a miss for you a mistake or a tactical move? Did your opinion change after the analysis of the tactical miss?
Do you play for victory or for pleasure, and in what proportion?
Is it advantageous for a civilian to break at six if lifting two at four is allowed?
At six both teams are found. Whom to lift: the sheriffs together or their black checks together? Should one lift at all?

Typical mistakes

Splitting the table without the word of the red check.
Breaking a car crash into a black for beauty.
Forgetting about the break.
Mixing up numbers.

Source of the idea. The section "Lifting two in the guessing round at four" from Dmitry Novik's book "50 Shades of Red" (2021) and the chapter "Should two be lifted in the guessing round at four?" from "Mafia in the Style of Zen" (2020). The workshop conditions were compiled by us. The percentage estimates belong to the author.